Multi-metric evaluation of the models WARM, CropSyst, and WOFOST for rice.

2009 - Ecological Modelling, 220, 1395-1410
Confalonieri, R., Acutis, M., Bellocchi, G., Donatelli, M.


WARM(WaterAccounting Rice Model) simulates paddy rice (Oryza sativa L.), basedontemperature-driven development and radiation-driven crop growth. It also simulates: biomass partitioning, floodwater effect on temperature, spikelet sterility, floodwater and chemicals management, and soil hydrology. Biomass estimates fromWARMwere evaluated and compared with the ones from two generic crop models (CropSyst,WOFOST). The test-area was the Po Valley (Italy). Data collected at six sites from 1989 to 2004 from rice crops grown under flooded and non-limiting conditions were split into a calibration (to estimate some model parameters) and a validation set. For model evaluation, a fuzzy-logic based multiple-metrics
indicator (MQI) was used: 0 (best)≤MQI≤1 (worst). WARM estimates compared well with the actual data (mean MQI = 0.037 against 0.167 and 0.173 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). On an average, the three models performed similarly for individual validation metrics such as modelling efficiency (EF > 0.90) and correlation coefficient (R > 0.98). WARM performed best in a weighed measure of the Akaike Information Criterion: (worst) 0

Keywords: Model evaluation, Model Quality Indicator, sensitivity analysis, Akaike Information Criterion, Oryza sativa L., crop growth modelling
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.02.017